Mexican inflation accelerates to 3.4% in early September

Mexico's annual headline inflation accelerated to 3.4% during the first half of September, marking its highest level in three months, according to data released on 24 September 2026 by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi). The figure exceeded the consensus expectation among 32 banks, brokerages, and research groups surveyed by Citi, moving further above the 3% target set by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

Analysts at Banamex and Barclays attributed the uptick largely to agricultural components. Fresh produce prices increased 7.9% year-on-year across 55 monitored cities. Tomato prices surged 22.8%, registering their largest increase since the first half of March and contributing 10.5 basis points to the food category. Retail tomato prices rose from a low of 12 Mexican pesos per kilogram to between 35 and 40 Mexican pesos. Onion prices rose 8.6% year-on-year to 45 Mexican pesos per kilogram, while lemon prices also saw upward pressure.

Services added further pressure, driven by private school tuition fees, which rose 5.8% year-on-year at the start of the school term, led by primary education. Geographically, Chetumal and Cancún recorded the highest local inflation rates at 4.9%, followed by Guadalajara at 4.8%. Acapulco posted the lowest rate at 1.9%, followed by Ciudad Acuña and the capital of Tlaxcala at 2.1%.