Bernstein initiates Shopify with $160 target

Bernstein initiated coverage of Shopify with an Outperform rating and a price target of $160. That target implies over 26% upside from Thursday's closing price. Following the note, Shopify shares rose 2% in premarket trading on Friday by 06:25 ET.

Analyst Mark Shmulik described Shopify as an AI optimist. He noted that emerging technologies like agentic commerce and AI-native alternatives should expand the company's addressable market rather than shrink it. While Shopify's gross margins fell 230 basis points year-over-year in 2025 due to payments and enterprise pricing, active storefronts using its Sidekick AI assistant surged four times year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026.

Shopify currently holds about 14% of the U.S. e-commerce market. More than half of its merchants are now located outside the U.S., and 50% of incremental gross merchandise value comes from outside North America. In addition, physical, international, and B2B channels account for more than 60% of total sales volume.

Bernstein projects Shopify's global gross merchandise value will grow at a 24% compound annual rate from 2025 to 2030. Over that period, the brokerage models revenue growth of about 25% and free cash flow growth of approximately 32%. Shopify trades at 9 times 2027 revenue and 45 times 2027 free cash flow, compared to its historical ranges of 10 to 12 times revenue and roughly 70 times free cash flow.