Fitch affirms CVC Brasil at BBB(bra) and cuts outlook

On Tuesday, 15 September, travel operator CVC Brasil announced that Fitch Ratings affirmed its National Long-Term Rating at 'BBB(bra)'. The rating agency revised the outlook on the rating from positive to stable.

Fitch stated that the revision to stable reflects weaker-than-expected free cash flow strengthening. The agency pointed to rising pressures across the tourism industry and weakening domestic demand, noting that the duration and magnitude of these headwinds remain uncertain. Fitch also noted that performance below expectations would heavily pressure the company's rating.

For 2026, Fitch projects negative free cash flow of BRL 71 million for CVC Brasil, driven by higher working-capital consumption and soft demand. The agency expects free cash flow to return to a positive BRL 15 million in 2027, supported by working-capital stabilization and expense restructuring. While direct disruptions from the Middle East conflict have begun normalizing, Fitch warned that indirect consequences such as higher airfares could continue to pressure booking volumes and cash generation.

The agency highlighted that high household debt and elevated interest rates are weakening consumer spending, while aviation kerosene price volatility adds pressure to ticket prices. The rating incorporates CVC Brasil's market positioning and scale, its recent short-term debt refinancing at lower financial costs, and expectations of healthy margins alongside leverage levels compatible with the 'BBB(bra)' grade.