CETES Pay ~6.5%: Are Peso T-Bills Better Than Stocks Right Now?

With Banxico holding its benchmark rate at 6.50% on June 25, 2026, short-term Mexican government paper still pays around 6.3% to 7% a year - a nominal return that has many retail investors in Mexico asking a fair question: why take on the ups and downs of the stock market when peso T-bills pay this much?

CETES - the Certificados de la Tesoreria, Mexico's short-term government T-bills - are widely treated as the local benchmark for a historically low-risk return, since they are backed by the federal government. At the latest auction the 28-day CETES paid about 6.30%, and the one-year term reached roughly 7.17%. When an instrument this simple pays that much, the bar for owning riskier assets goes up.

Here is where the headline number gets misleading. A nominal yield is not the same as what you actually keep after prices rise. Mexico's annual inflation ran at 3.55% in the first half of June 2026, so a 28-day CETES paying ~6.3% leaves a real return of roughly 2.7% once you account for the erosion of purchasing power. That is a positive real return - genuinely useful - but it is a long way from 6.5%.